Independiente F.b.c.vs
Paraguari AC
COMPLETEDParaguay · Division Intermedia · 10/23/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Independiente F.b.c. · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Independiente F.b.c. 1-3 Paraguari AC
Original prediction
Independiente F.b.c.
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 23 October 2026 at 06:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 46.4% | 39.8% | -6.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 27.3% | 29.1% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 3.41 | 26.3% | 31.0% | 4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Independiente F.b.c.
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Independiente F.b.c. has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20