Independiente F.b.c.vs
Nacional Asuncion
COMPLETEDParaguay · Copa Paraguay · 9/30/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nacional Asuncion · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Independiente F.b.c. 2-2 Nacional Asuncion
Original prediction
Nacional Asuncion
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 10:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.41 | 20.6% | 30.3% | 9.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.1% | 28.2% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 1.71 | 53.2% | 41.5% | -11.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.48 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Nacional Asuncion
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Nacional Asuncion has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40