Independiente F.b.c.vs
Encarnación
COMPLETEDParaguay · Division Intermedia · 9/14/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Independiente F.b.c. · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Independiente F.b.c. 1-0 Encarnación
Original prediction
Independiente F.b.c.
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.08 | 42.7% | 51.5% | 8.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 28.7% | 25.9% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 3.12 | 28.6% | 22.6% | -6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.08 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Independiente F.b.c.
Probability
51.5%
Model confidence
51.5%
Independiente F.b.c. has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40