Independiente F.b.c.vs
Atlético Tembetary
COMPLETEDParaguay · Division Intermedia · 10/10/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Independiente F.b.c. · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Independiente F.b.c. 3-0 Atlético Tembetary
Original prediction
Independiente F.b.c.
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 22:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.99 | 44.8% | 41.5% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 27.9% | 28.9% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 3.27 | 27.4% | 29.6% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.99 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Independiente F.b.c.
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Independiente F.b.c. has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40