Independiente del Vallevs
Macara
COMPLETEDEcuador · Liga Pro · 9/5/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Independiente del Valle · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Independiente del Valle 3-1 Macara
Original prediction
Independiente del Valle
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.41 | 64.5% | 62.5% | -2.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.22 | 21.6% | 21.5% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 6.60 | 13.8% | 16.0% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.41 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
Independiente del Valle
Probability
62.5%
Model confidence
62.5%
Independiente del Valle has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20