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Monday, 20 July 2026Last updated 14:55
Independiente del Valle

Independiente del Valle

Home
WW
61
Full time
Emelec

Emelec

Away
WDD
Estadio Banco Guayaquil
GoalVio prediction
66% confidence
Independiente del Valle(66%)
Most likely exact score2-0
Win probability
Independiente del Valle
66%
Draw
22%
Emelec
12%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Independiente del Valle
97
Emelec
34
Defence
Independiente del Valle
91
Emelec
86
Momentum
Independiente del Valle
100
Emelec
56
Danger (xG)
Independiente del Valle
3.15
Emelec
0.90
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Independiente del Valle)
3.15
avg per match
xG for (Emelec)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Independiente del Valle)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Emelec)
0.30
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle
WWWWW
EmelecEmelec
WDD

Probability breakdown

66% confidence
Independiente del Valle66%
Draw22%
Emelec12%

Independiente del Valle leads with 66% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Independiente del Valle head into this in Liga Pro fixture at Estadio Banco Guayaquil in decent form (WW), while Emelec arrive in mixed form (WDD). Independiente del Valle have a 100% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 33% for Emelec over 3 games.

Both sides are defensively strong — Independiente del Valle (91/100) and Emelec (86/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.

Independiente del Valle have won all 1 of their recent home fixtures, averaging 4.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per game at home. Emelec have won 1 of their last 2 away fixtures, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per away game.

There is no head-to-head data between Independiente del Valle and Emelec in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Independiente del Valle to win with 66% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-0. Win probabilities: Independiente del Valle 6558%, Draw 2222%, Emelec 1220%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

Independiente del Valle

Independiente del Valle

W
@ Aucas
16 Jul 2026
30
W
@ Santo Domingo
8 Jul 2026
20
W
vs Manta FC
4 Jul 2026
40
W
@ Macara
16 May 2026
30
W
@ Universidad Catolica
13 May 2026
20
Emelec

Emelec

W
@ Orense SC
17 Jul 2026
20
D
vs Barcelona SC
13 Jul 2026
00
D
@ Delfin SC
5 Jul 2026
11

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Independiente del Valle vs Emelec?

GoalVio's model predicts Independiente del Valle to win with 66% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Independiente del Valle vs Emelec?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-0.

Will both teams score in Independiente del Valle vs Emelec?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Independiente del Valle vs Emelec?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more