Independiente del Vallevs
Aucas
COMPLETEDEcuador · Liga Pro · 10/10/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Independiente del Valle · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Independiente del Valle 1-0 Aucas, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Independiente del Valle 2-1 Aucas
Original prediction
Independiente del Valle
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.47 | 61.9% | 62.6% | 0.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.02 | 22.6% | 22.6% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 5.88 | 15.5% | 14.8% | -0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.47 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.7 pts
Projected Score
Independiente del Valle 1–0 Aucas
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Independiente del Valle
Probability
62.6%
Model confidence
62.6%
Independiente del Valle has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80