Independente SPvs
Tupa
COMPLETEDBrazil · Paulista Série B · 7/5/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Independente SP · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 3-0
Independente SP are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLW), averaging 4.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Tupa are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLWLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Independente SP hold a 32.5-point power-rating edge (74.1 v 41.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.8% in the Paulista Série B, while Independente SP holds the strongest overall chance at 86% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 39% BTTS chance and 67% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Independente SP
Probability
85.9%
Model confidence
14.8%
Independente SP has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 23 · GA 4 · avg 4.60/0.80
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60