Independ. Rivadaviavs
Gimnasia L.P.
COMPLETEDArgentina · Liga Profesional Argentina · 10/3/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Independ. Rivadavia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Independ. Rivadavia 1-1 Gimnasia L.P.
Original prediction
Independ. Rivadavia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 45.4% | 51.4% | 6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.16 | 29.6% | 26.2% | -3.4 pts |
| Away | 3.75 | 25.0% | 22.4% | -2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.16 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–013%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Independ. Rivadavia
Probability
51.4%
Model confidence
51.4%
Independ. Rivadavia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60