Independ. Rivadaviavs
Atletico Tucuman
COMPLETEDArgentina · Copa Argentina · 9/16/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Independ. Rivadavia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Independ. Rivadavia 1-1 Atletico Tucuman
Original prediction
Independ. Rivadavia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.19 | 42.6% | 37.8% | -4.8 pts |
| Draw | 2.97 | 31.4% | 29.3% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 3.58 | 26.0% | 32.9% | 6.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.97 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Independ. Rivadavia
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
Independ. Rivadavia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60