IMT Novi Beogradvs
FK Crvena Zvezda
COMPLETEDSerbia · Super Liga · 9/13/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FK Crvena Zvezda · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
IMT Novi Beograd 0-1 FK Crvena Zvezda
Original prediction
FK Crvena Zvezda
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.49 | 12.2% | 31.8% | 19.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.93 | 18.5% | 25.3% | 6.8 pts |
| Away | 1.31 | 69.3% | 43.0% | -26.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.31 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-26.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
FK Crvena Zvezda
Probability
43.0%
Model confidence
43.0%
FK Crvena Zvezda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20