Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Qarabag · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (13%), 0-2 (12%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Imisli FK 0-2 Qarabag
Original prediction
Qarabag
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 13.75 | 6.6% | 16.8% | 10.2 pts |
| Draw | 5.97 | 15.2% | 22.1% | 6.9 pts |
| Away | 1.16 | 78.2% | 61.1% | -17.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.16 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–113%
- 2.0–212%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Qarabag
Probability
61.1%
Model confidence
61.1%
Qarabag has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Imisli FKLLLWL
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
QarabagWDWWL
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Imisli FKQarabag
33.3Attack60.0
38.9Defence73.3
22.2Form86.7
34.8Power76.7
0.79xG1.80