Imisli FKvs
Neftchi Baku
COMPLETEDAzerbaijan · Premyer Liqa · 9/11/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Neftchi Baku · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Imisli FK 2-3 Neftchi Baku
Original prediction
Neftchi Baku
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.19 | 14.6% | 25.4% | 10.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.98 | 22.7% | 27.2% | 4.5 pts |
| Away | 1.44 | 62.7% | 47.4% | -15.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Neftchi Baku
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
Neftchi Baku has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 13 · GA 3 · avg 2.60/0.60