Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Şamaxı FK · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-2 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Imisli FK 2-1 Şamaxı FK
Original prediction
Şamaxı FK
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 08:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.65 | 34.0% | 24.1% | -9.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 29.3% | 26.1% | -3.1 pts |
| Away | 2.46 | 36.7% | 49.8% | 13.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–114%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–212%
Predicted outcome
Şamaxı FK
Probability
49.8%
Model confidence
49.8%
Şamaxı FK has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Imisli FKWLLLL
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Şamaxı FKWDWDW
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
Imisli FKŞamaxı FK
29.2Attack50.0
45.8Defence62.5
29.2Form54.2
38.0Power57.2
0.78xG1.50