Şimalvs
Baku Sportinq
COMPLETEDAzerbaijan · Birinci Dasta · 10/22/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Şimal · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Şimal 5-2 Baku Sportinq
Original prediction
Şimal
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.71 | 53.4% | 56.8% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 26.1% | 22.9% | -3.2 pts |
| Away | 4.45 | 20.5% | 20.3% | -0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.71 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Şimal
Probability
56.8%
Model confidence
56.8%
Şimal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ŞimalWDLDL
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
Baku SportinqLLLLL
GF 1 · GA 12 · avg 0.20/2.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
ŞimalBaku Sportinq
53.3Attack6.7
40.0Defence20.0
33.3Form0.0
42.8Power15.2
2.26xG1.02