Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Araz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Şimal 0-6 Araz
Original prediction
Araz
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 October 2026 at 15:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.36 | 20.8% | 34.9% | 14.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.10 | 22.1% | 25.5% | 3.4 pts |
| Away | 1.59 | 57.1% | 39.6% | -17.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.59 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Araz
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
Araz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ŞimalWWDLD
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
ArazLLLLD
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
ŞimalAraz
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
2.02xG1.72