Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Şahdağ · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Şimal 1-4 Şahdağ
Original prediction
Şahdağ
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.96 | 18.1% | 27.4% | 9.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 24.6% | 27.1% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 1.56 | 57.3% | 45.5% | -11.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Şahdağ
Probability
45.5%
Model confidence
45.5%
Şahdağ has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ŞimalDLWWL
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
ŞahdağWWDDW
GF 6 · GA 1 · avg 1.20/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
ŞimalŞahdağ
33.3Attack50.0
50.0Defence100.0
16.7Form100.0
36.5Power86.5
1.09xG1.47