Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
HPS W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Ilves are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.20 conceded, while HPS W are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and HPS W hold a 9.1-point power-rating edge (49.3 v 58.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.2% in the Kansallinen Liiga, while HPS W holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
HPS W
Probability
44.8%
Model confidence
11.2%
HPS W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00