Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
HJK · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-3
Ilves are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWWL), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while HJK are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 3.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and HJK hold a 37.0-point power-rating edge (49.3 v 86.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-3 the most likely exact scoreline at 9.3% in the Kansallinen Liiga, while HJK holds the strongest overall chance at 80% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 80% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
HJK
Probability
79.6%
Model confidence
9.3%
HJK has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
GF 19 · GA 3 · avg 3.80/0.60