Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ilves · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-0
Ilves are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.80 conceded, while VIFK W are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.20 scored and 3.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Ilves hold a 30.9-point power-rating edge (49.3 v 18.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 9.7% in the Kansallinen Liiga, while Ilves holds the strongest overall chance at 83% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 82% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ilves
Probability
83.1%
Model confidence
9.7%
Ilves has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80
GF 1 · GA 15 · avg 0.20/3.00