Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
vaasa PS · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Ilves are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWLLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded, while VPS are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and VPS hold a 6.3-point power-rating edge (48.5 v 54.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.6% in the Veikkausliiga, while VPS holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
vaasa PS
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
vaasa PS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00