Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ilves · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ilves 2-0 SJK
Original prediction
Ilves
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.89 | 48.9% | 52.4% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 25.0% | 23.5% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 3.55 | 26.0% | 24.1% | -1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.89 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Ilves
Probability
52.4%
Model confidence
52.4%
Ilves has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IlvesDWWWW
GF 12 · GA 2 · avg 2.40/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
SJKWWDDD
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
IlvesSJK
55.1Attack37.2
50.0Defence55.1
44.9Form34.6
50.4Power44.0
1.63xG1.00