Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lahti · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ilves 3-1 Lahti
Original prediction
Lahti
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.24 | 41.4% | 32.3% | -9.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 26.2% | 26.6% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.86 | 32.5% | 41.1% | 8.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Lahti
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
41.1%
Lahti has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IlvesWLLLD
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
LahtiWWWLD
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
IlvesLahti
52.2Attack40.6
46.4Defence71.0
40.6Form50.7
47.0Power55.2
0.95xG1.22