Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
KuPS W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-2
Ilves are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.40 conceded, while KuPS W are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDW), averaging 2.60 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and KuPS W hold an 11.6-point power-rating edge (49.3 v 60.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 7.1% in the Kansallinen Liiga, while KuPS W holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 81% BTTS chance and 84% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
KuPS W
Probability
50.9%
Model confidence
7.1%
KuPS W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 12 · avg 2.00/2.40
GF 13 · GA 3 · avg 2.60/0.60