Ilvesvs
HJK Helsinki
COMPLETEDFinland · Veikkausliiga · 8/31/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
HJK Helsinki · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ilves 1-2 HJK Helsinki
Original prediction
HJK Helsinki
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.70 | 25.1% | 29.7% | 4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.90 | 23.8% | 22.5% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 1.81 | 51.1% | 47.8% | -3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.81 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
HJK Helsinki
Probability
47.8%
Model confidence
47.8%
HJK Helsinki has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20