Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ilves · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ilves 2-0 FF Jaro
Original prediction
Ilves
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.60 | 58.1% | 68.4% | 10.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.06 | 22.9% | 18.4% | -4.5 pts |
| Away | 4.89 | 19.0% | 13.2% | -5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.60 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Ilves
Probability
68.4%
Model confidence
68.4%
Ilves has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IlvesLLLDW
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
FF JaroLLLLL
GF 1 · GA 11 · avg 0.20/2.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
IlvesFF Jaro
51.5Attack27.3
43.9Defence33.3
37.9Form22.7
45.2Power30.5
2.31xG0.81