Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Turku PS · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Ilves are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Turku PS are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Turku PS hold a 5.0-point power-rating edge (48.5 v 53.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.8% in the Veikkausliiga, while Turku PS holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Turku PS
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
13.8%
Turku PS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80