IlvesvsShakhtar Donetsk

Ilves are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLDWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Shakhtar Donetsk are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (WDWDD), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Shakhtar Donetsk hold a 20.7-point power-rating edge (10.7 v 31.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.9% in the UEFA Europa League, while Shakhtar Donetsk holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.