Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ilves II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ilves II 6-1 P-Iirot
Original prediction
Ilves II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.55 | 58.2% | 60.3% | 2.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.23 | 21.3% | 17.9% | -3.4 pts |
| Away | 4.39 | 20.5% | 21.8% | 1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.55 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Ilves II
Probability
60.3%
Model confidence
60.3%
Ilves II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Ilves IIWLLWL
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
P-IirotWDLLW
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Ilves IIP-Iirot
93.3Attack55.0
46.7Defence55.0
55.0Form51.7
62.1Power54.0
2.80xG1.65