Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Honka · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 1-3 (7%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ilves II 2-0 Honka
Original prediction
Honka
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.58 | 25.3% | 24.1% | -1.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.07 | 22.2% | 17.9% | -4.3 pts |
| Away | 1.72 | 52.5% | 58.0% | 5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.1–37%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Honka
Probability
58.0%
Model confidence
58.0%
Honka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Ilves IIWWLLW
GF 17 · GA 6 · avg 3.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
HonkaWWDWW
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Ilves IIHonka
98.4Attack100.0
47.6Defence69.8
57.1Form79.4
64.3Power79.8
1.76xG2.86