Illescasvs
Villarrubia
COMPLETEDSpain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · 9/27/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Illescas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Illescas 2-0 Villarrubia
Original prediction
Illescas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 54.2% | 42.2% | -12.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 27.5% | 28.4% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 4.96 | 18.3% | 29.4% | 11.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.67 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Illescas
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Illescas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00