Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Illescas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Illescas 1-0 La Solana
Original prediction
Illescas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 October 2026 at 02:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.48 | 61.1% | 48.8% | -12.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 24.5% | 26.1% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 6.28 | 14.4% | 25.1% | 10.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Illescas
Probability
48.8%
Model confidence
48.8%
Illescas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IllescasWLDDL
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
La SolanaNo completed matches
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00
BTTS 0/0O2.5 0/0
IllescasLa Solana
66.7Attack50.0
100.0Defence50.0
100.0Form50.0
88.7Power50.0
2.12xG1.33