Illertissenvs
Nürnberg II
COMPLETEDGermany · Regionalliga - Bayern · 9/11/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Illertissen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Illertissen 2-1 Nürnberg II
Original prediction
Illertissen
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.45 | 36.9% | 47.0% | 10.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 26.2% | 23.4% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 2.44 | 37.0% | 29.6% | -7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.45 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Illertissen
Probability
47.0%
Model confidence
47.0%
Illertissen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60