Ilkeston Townvs
Redcar Athletic
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Redcar Athletic · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Ilkeston Town 0-3 Redcar Athletic, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ilkeston Town 0-5 Redcar Athletic
Original prediction
Redcar Athletic
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.67 | 19.2% | 13.8% | -5.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.01 | 22.3% | 17.8% | -4.6 pts |
| Away | 1.53 | 58.5% | 68.5% | 10.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.53 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.0 pts
Projected Score
Ilkeston Town 0–3 Redcar Athletic
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Redcar Athletic
Probability
68.5%
Model confidence
68.5%
Redcar Athletic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40