Ilkeston Townvs
Guiseley AFC
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 10/6/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guiseley AFC · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-3 (14%), 0-2 (13%), 0-4 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ilkeston Town 0-2 Guiseley AFC
Original prediction
Guiseley AFC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 22 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.60 | 24.8% | 15.6% | -9.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 25.6% | 18.6% | -7.0 pts |
| Away | 1.80 | 49.6% | 65.8% | 16.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.80 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–314%
- 2.0–213%
- 3.0–411%
Predicted outcome
Guiseley AFC
Probability
65.8%
Model confidence
65.8%
Guiseley AFC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00