Ilkeston Townvs
Avro
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Avro · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-3 (10%), 1-3 (9%), 0-4 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ilkeston Town 2-0 Avro
Original prediction
Avro
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.96 | 13.0% | 8.7% | -4.3 pts |
| Draw | 5.16 | 17.5% | 12.4% | -5.1 pts |
| Away | 1.30 | 69.5% | 78.9% | 9.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–310%
- 2.1–39%
- 3.0–49%
Predicted outcome
Avro
Probability
78.9%
Model confidence
78.9%
Avro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 13 · avg 0.40/2.60
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40