Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ilirija · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 3-0 (13%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ilirija 2-0 Krško
Original prediction
Ilirija
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.45 | 61.3% | 60.0% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.92 | 22.7% | 22.2% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 5.53 | 16.1% | 17.8% | 1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.45 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.3–013%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Ilirija
Probability
60.0%
Model confidence
60.0%
Ilirija has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IlirijaLDLWW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
KrškoLLDLD
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
IlirijaKrško
66.7Attack26.7
100.0Defence31.1
100.0Form28.9
88.7Power31.7
2.63xG0.61