Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ilirija · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ilirija 2-1 Krka
Original prediction
Ilirija
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.55 | 35.0% | 38.0% | 3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 27.0% | 28.5% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.35 | 38.0% | 33.6% | -4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.55 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Ilirija
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Ilirija has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IlirijaLLWLD
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
KrkaLLLWW
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
IlirijaKrka
33.3Attack50.0
83.3Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
56.2Power50.0
1.45xG1.17