Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Beltinci · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-2 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ilirija 2-4 Beltinci
Original prediction
Beltinci
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.02 | 29.6% | 28.1% | -1.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 26.7% | 28.9% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.05 | 43.7% | 43.0% | -0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–114%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–212%
Predicted outcome
Beltinci
Probability
43.0%
Model confidence
43.0%
Beltinci has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IlirijaLWLDL
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BeltinciWWDWL
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
IlirijaBeltinci
33.3Attack61.1
83.3Defence72.2
50.0Form66.7
56.2Power66.9
0.80xG1.55