SuperettanSuperettan
Saturday, 1 August 202616:00Updated today
IK brage

IK brage

Home
LW
vs
16:00
Landskrona BoIS

Landskrona BoIS

Away
W
Domnarvsvallen
GoalVio prediction
39% confidence
IK brage(39%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Win probability
IK brage
39%
Draw
26%
Landskrona BoIS
35%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
IK brage
97
Landskrona BoIS
34
Defence
IK brage
14
Landskrona BoIS
91
Momentum
IK brage
50
Landskrona BoIS
100
Danger (xG)
IK brage
3.15
Landskrona BoIS
0.90
Both teams to score
Yes

The model projects 1.83 xG for IK brage and 1.68 xG for Landskrona BoIS — strong and strong attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 2-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. The xG gap between the sides is narrow (0.16), meaning neither defence is expected to completely shut the other out.The attack-versus-defence matchup supports both teams scoring. IK brage's Attack Score (97) exceeds Landskrona BoIS's Defensive Stability (91), and Landskrona BoIS's attack (34) similarly tests IK brage's defence (14). Neither backline is dominant enough to prevent the other side from scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
Yes

The model projects a combined xG of 3.51 — high attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 2-1 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. With both sides generating high xG, multiple scoreline combinations in the probability grid exceed 2.5 goals.The attack-versus-defence matchups across both ends of the pitch favour the attackers. IK brage's Attack Score (97) vs Landskrona BoIS's Defensive Stability (91) and Landskrona BoIS's attack (34) vs IK brage's defence (14) both point to a goal-friendly environment — neither defence is strong enough to suppress the other side's attacking output.

xG for (IK brage)
3.15
avg per match
xG for (Landskrona BoIS)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (IK brage)
2.25
avg per match
xG against (Landskrona BoIS)
0.00
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
IK brageIK brage
LWDL
Landskrona BoISLandskrona BoIS
WD

Probability breakdown

39% confidence
IK brage39%
Draw26%
Landskrona BoIS35%

IK brage leads with 39% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

IK brage Backed to Win — Model Projects 2-1

IK brage host Landskrona BoIS in Superettan. IK brage have recorded DLWLLD in recent matches while Landskrona BoIS arrive with a run of WWWWLL. These sides have met 10 times recently, averaging 2.9 goals per game.

Key factors

: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. IK brage's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 55% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: ⚽ Attacking Efficiency IK brage have averaged 1.7 goals per game in recent fixtures compared to Landskrona BoIS's 1.3 — a gap in attacking output that the model captures in its xG projection. Consistent goal-scoring is one of the clearest indicators of a team's ability to convert chances.
: 🔄 Head-to-Head Record IK brage have won 3 of the last 10 meetings between these sides — a historically dominant record that the model treats as a meaningful signal when the underlying stats are otherwise close.

Why GoalVio backs this

IK brage hold a slim but consistent edge across the key input metrics. No single factor clears the threshold required to claim a material advantage, but chance quality, defensive organisation, and recent form all point in the same direction — and when multiple independent signals align, that convergence is the model's case for IK brage.

Biggest risk: The xG gap between these sides is narrow — a small swing in form, a set-piece goal, or a tactical adjustment could flip the result. The model favours IK brage, but this is not a fixture where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. If Landskrona BoIS score first, the game becomes genuinely open.

Risk factors

  • Landskrona BoIS are in decent form with 4 wins from their last 10 matches — an upset cannot be ruled out.
  • IK brage have been conceding 2.01 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
  • These sides have drawn 5 of their last 10 meetings — history suggests a tight, unpredictable contest.

Recent form

IK brage

IK brage

L
vs Falkenbergs FF
26 Jun 2026
24
W
vs IFK Varnamo
21 Jun 2026
51
D
vs IFK Norrkoping
16 May 2026
00
L
vs Ostersunds FK
13 May 2026
24
Landskrona BoIS

Landskrona BoIS

W
vs IFK Varnamo
28 Jun 2026
10
D
vs Norrby IF
12 May 2026
11

Frequently asked questions

Who will win IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?

GoalVio's model predicts IK brage to win with 39% confidence.

What is the predicted score for IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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