Serie DSerie D
Saturday, 25 July 2026Last updated 14:56
Iguatu

Iguatu

Home
D
11
Full time
Nacional AM

Nacional AM

Away
D
Estadio Antonio Moreno de Mello
GoalVio prediction
39% confidence
Iguatu(39%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Iguatu
39%
Draw
28%
Nacional AM
33%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Iguatu
34
Nacional AM
34
Defence
Iguatu
66
Nacional AM
66
Momentum
Iguatu
33
Nacional AM
33
Danger (xG)
Iguatu
0.90
Nacional AM
0.90
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Iguatu)
0.90
avg per match
xG for (Nacional AM)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Iguatu)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Nacional AM)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
IguatuIguatu
DD
Nacional AMNacional AM
DD

Probability breakdown

39% confidence
Iguatu39%
Draw28%
Nacional AM33%

Iguatu leads with 39% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Iguatu head into this in Serie D fixture at Estadio Antonio Moreno de Mello in mixed form (D), while Nacional AM arrive in mixed form (D). Iguatu have a 0% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 0% for Nacional AM over 1 games.

Both sides are defensively strong — Iguatu (66/100) and Nacional AM (66/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.

Iguatu have limited home data in the engine at this stage. Nacional AM have limited away data in the engine at this stage.

The last 1 meetings between these sides have been evenly split, with 1 draw, averaging 2.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects Iguatu to win with 39% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Iguatu 3880%, Draw 2800%, Nacional AM 3320%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Head to head

Iguatu 0Draws 10 Nacional AM
Avg goals: 2.0BTTS in 1/1
18 Jul 2026
Iguatu
D11
Nacional AM

Recent form

Iguatu

Iguatu

D
@ Nacional AM
18 Jul 2026
11
D
@ Maracanã
16 May 2026
11
Nacional AM

Nacional AM

D
vs Iguatu
18 Jul 2026
11
D
vs Manauara
16 May 2026
00

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Iguatu vs Nacional AM?

GoalVio's model predicts Iguatu to win with 39% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Iguatu vs Nacional AM?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Iguatu vs Nacional AM?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Iguatu vs Nacional AM?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more