Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
IFK Luleå · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-1 (7%), 3-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
IFK Luleå 2-1 Täfteå
Original prediction
IFK Luleå
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.70 | 53.3% | 50.4% | -2.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.03 | 22.5% | 19.1% | -3.4 pts |
| Away | 3.77 | 24.1% | 30.5% | 6.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.70 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.3–26%
Predicted outcome
IFK Luleå
Probability
50.4%
Model confidence
50.4%
IFK Luleå has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IFK LuleåWLLLW
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
TäfteåLWLLL
GF 8 · GA 14 · avg 1.60/2.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
IFK LuleåTäfteå
74.1Attack83.3
55.6Defence48.1
63.0Form57.4
63.1Power60.2
2.58xG2.08