Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
IFK Luleå · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (8%), 2-1 (7%), 4-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
IFK Luleå 3-1 Gottne
Original prediction
IFK Luleå
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 16:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 52.1% | 63.6% | 11.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.95 | 23.0% | 17.6% | -5.4 pts |
| Away | 3.65 | 24.9% | 18.8% | -6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.75 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–18%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.4–17%
Predicted outcome
IFK Luleå
Probability
63.6%
Model confidence
63.6%
IFK Luleå has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IFK LuleåWWWLW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
GottneWWLLL
GF 10 · GA 14 · avg 2.00/2.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
IFK LuleåGottne
72.2Attack68.1
58.3Defence31.9
68.1Form47.2
65.9Power49.8
3.42xG1.53