IF Karlstadvs
Arlanda
COMPLETEDSweden · Ettan - Norra · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
IF Karlstad · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
IF Karlstad 3-0 Arlanda
Original prediction
IF Karlstad
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 15:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 51.5% | 41.3% | -10.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 25.7% | 26.2% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 3.97 | 22.7% | 32.5% | 9.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.75 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
IF Karlstad
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
41.3%
IF Karlstad has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80