Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gnistan · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
IF Gnistan are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DLWWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Ilves are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLLWW), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and IF Gnistan hold a 7.1-point power-rating edge (53.4 v 46.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.3% in the Veikkausliiga, while IF Gnistan holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Gnistan
Probability
52.3%
Model confidence
11.3%
Gnistan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40