World · World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · 10/13/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Iceland W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Iceland W 5-0 Croatia W
Original prediction
Iceland W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.08 | 84.8% | 39.8% | -45.0 pts |
| Draw | 8.23 | 11.1% | 22.8% | 11.7 pts |
| Away | 22.45 | 4.1% | 37.3% | 33.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.08 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-45.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–211%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Iceland W
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Iceland W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 15 · GA 4 · avg 3.00/0.80