Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Iceland · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Iceland 1-1 Estonia
Original prediction
Iceland
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.29 | 72.5% | 49.9% | -22.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.20 | 18.0% | 24.0% | 6.0 pts |
| Away | 9.80 | 9.5% | 26.1% | 16.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 4.20 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-22.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Iceland
Probability
49.9%
Model confidence
49.9%
Iceland has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IcelandLLDDL
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
EstoniaWDLDL
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
IcelandEstonia
50.0Attack16.7
25.0Defence50.0
29.2Form22.2
36.8Power32.1
1.54xG1.23