Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Iceland · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Iceland 3-0 Bulgaria
Original prediction
Iceland
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 00:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.44 | 65.0% | 51.1% | -13.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.32 | 21.7% | 26.2% | 4.5 pts |
| Away | 7.02 | 13.4% | 22.7% | 9.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Iceland
Probability
51.1%
Model confidence
51.1%
Iceland has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IcelandWDLLD
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BulgariaDLDLL
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
IcelandBulgaria
66.7Attack16.7
83.3Defence66.7
66.7Form16.7
71.2Power36.5
1.56xG0.86