Iceland U21vs
France U21
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · 9/25/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
France U21 · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Iceland U21 1-1 France U21
Original prediction
France U21
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 16:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 8.64 | 10.5% | 27.7% | 17.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.77 | 19.1% | 23.3% | 4.2 pts |
| Away | 1.29 | 70.3% | 49.0% | -21.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.77 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
France U21
Probability
49.0%
Model confidence
49.0%
France U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00