Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Nahda · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ibri 0-0 Al-Nahda
Original prediction
Al-Nahda
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 19:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.52 | 19.8% | 27.2% | 7.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 25.8% | 28.1% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 1.65 | 54.4% | 44.8% | -9.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.48 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Al-Nahda
Probability
44.8%
Model confidence
44.8%
Al-Nahda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IbriLLWDL
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Al-NahdaDDDWW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
IbriAl-Nahda
16.7Attack55.6
0.0Defence66.7
0.0Form55.6
13.2Power60.9
1.10xG1.75